Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
Billerud AB is a Swedish pulp and paper manufacturer and a global leader in high-performance paper and packaging materials, headquartered in Solna, Sweden. The company produces renewable and recyclable products from responsibly managed forest fibers, serving over 2,000 customers in more than 100 countries, including packaging manufacturers, brand owners, publishers, and retail chains. Its diverse portfolio spans kraft and specialty paper, sack paper, cartonboard, liquid packaging board, containerboard, and graphic paper, with additional market pulp supply. Billerud operates nine production facilities across Sweden, Finland, and the United States, employing around 5,800 people. Organized into Europe (65% of net sales) and North America (28%) regions, it emphasizes sustainability, targeting science-based CO2e emission reductions, net-zero by 2050, and industry-leading safety. Formed in 2012 via merger and rebranded after acquiring Verso Corporation in 2022, Billerud drives innovation in fiber-based solutions for demanding applications, supporting a transition to lighter, stronger, low-carbon packaging while prioritizing quality, efficiency, and customer value.
kr 63.25
+kr 2.58 (+4.24%)
Live · 04:12 PM · Twelve Data
Operating margin is thin at 1.99%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue declined 6.8% YoY. Margins deteriorated 3.6pp alongside, both lines moving the wrong way.
At 204x earnings, the current multiple leaves limited room for execution misses or growth deceleration. Free cash flow declined 14% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened.
204.0x earnings, 76.7x FCF. The market is pricing in years of above-average growth. If that thesis breaks, downside from multiple compression alone could be 30%+. This is a stock where you're paying for the future, not the present.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
kr 39.21B
▼ -6.8% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
kr 77M
▼ -59.3% YoY
Op. Margin
-0.03%
▼ -3.6pp YoY
ROIC
1.79%
▼ -3.5pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
kr 205M
▼ -13.8% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
kr 487M
▼ -39.3% YoY
Net Debt
kr 6.11B
Cash & Equiv.
kr 1.28B
3Y CAGR: -1.7%
3Y CAGR: -47.3%
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At a P/E of 204.0 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 76.7, Billerud AB (publ) (BILL.XSTO) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about SEK -10.29 per share, so at SEK 63.25 the stock looks overvalued (116.3% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Billerud AB (publ) scores 10/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 5.5%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK -10.29 per share for BILL.XSTO, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK -7.72. At today's SEK 63.25, that puts the stock about 116.3% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Billerud AB (publ) scores 10 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, passing 0 of 8 checks, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a -0.0% operating margin and a 1.8% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full check-by-check breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
Yes, Billerud AB (publ) pays a regular dividend of about SEK 3.50 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 5.5% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 1,129.9% of earnings, so the dividend is stretched at this level. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For BILL.XSTO's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. BILL.XSTO currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 10/100 on quality (lower-quality). It also yields about 5.5%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.